Rivian Recap: 10/30/2026
Hey there,
Here's your weekly Rivian Recap for October 30th, 2026.
3rd quarter 2026 numbers are in, "continued cost improvements" are coming to R2, and is an in-car AI experience what people really want?
Plus, that Rivian "extended warranty" isn't what you think it is.
Let's dive in!
Software
The speed at which the world is changing thanks to artificial intelligence, specifically through useful applications of large language models is astounding.
It is no coincidence that major tech companies are looking for ways to shed historic numbers of their employees.
Personally, I've felt this rapid change through my primary business which is running a software company. Our small team has been able to execute at a higher level thanks to the leverage AI offers.
You could argue that in some ways we are entering a potentially abundant future where anyone with taste and a good idea can chisel away at creating something useful by understanding how a thing should work.
This is exactly how I was able to create, iterate, and improve the various tools that so many of you (46k+) have enjoyed getting clear insight into leasing, lease vs financing, range impacts, and more.
But even setting aside the tradeoffs of the AI coin (abundance vs layoffs), I think there's a bigger question worth asking.
Is a deeply rooted in-vehicle AI experience what people really want?
Wassym Bensaid has been on the Decoder podcast and most recently the InsideEV podcast touching on Rivian's vision for the future of in-car user experiences, powered through software.
During the InsideEV episode (at this time stamp), I think the hosts make a particularly important point that I've been trying to make for years now.
Which is basically this; Why is Rivian bringing self-inflicted pain by promising a particular version of the future while forcing customers to be without industry standard integrations as well as future tech debt for Rivian to maintain?
Rivian's grand vision for the future seems to be owning the entire stack that customers touch for maximum control, but I'm not convinced that's truly a better experience for buyers.
The idea that you would need to allow "agents" to complete tasks on your behalf such as ordering your favorite coffee from a coffee shop along your route is assuming many friction points are worthy of the trade off.
To accomplish tasks like this, you're assuming that buyers:
- Want their vehicle to do this in the first place
- Are willing to give Rivian that level of access and agency over their data
- Have excitement about logging into yet another service with their credentials
- Don't mind paying another subscription for their cars to do these tasks
From what I've been told, the take rate for Connect+ has been shockingly high to date, but the bulk of the Rivian fleet is still made up of premium priced R1S and R1T vehicles from affluent buyers.
We have Connect+ on both vehicles because we are forced to for media quality, the fringe Gear Guard live cam (which is unreliable) and the comparatively slow but convenient unlimited hotspot.
Looking at the broader market though, subscription fatigue is real, and the bulk of buyers look to their phone as something they already pay for. With a reasonable expectation that the phone should handle those tasks.
In a way, Rivian is betting against the smartphone, which historically has not been a fruitful or wise bet to make.
Consumers not only find immense value in what a modern smartphone can do, but they actually tend to love these devices.
This is why we see phones continuing to get larger, have more battery life, or foldable screens so they can use them even more than ever before.
Even if indirectly through CarPlay and Android Auto, the foundation of the experience always come back to using the phone more, not less.
Plus, the vision that Rivian has been talking about for years is still just that... a vision of what the future could be, not what it is today.
I could very well be completely wrong, and Rivian could deliver an incredible end-to-end experience that sweeps users off their feet.
But at it stands today, they have only executed on the first part of that strategy and have a massive list of apps, features, and access that just isn't as available or as nice to use in a Rivian as any vehicle supporting CarPlay/Android Auto.
That includes the easy wins such as media apps.
No dedicated podcast app (and likely will never have my favorite, Overcast)
No YouTube music
No Libby
And that's before we even get to the (literally) millions of apps that Rivian is likely to never have the time, bandwidth, or appetite to support. These apps chase the long tail that users love on their phones, and use often.
It is unreasonable to expect either Rivian to build and maintain an equal library, generate enough developer excitement, or even ask users to manage a duplicate set of logins for a comparable experience.
The big win is also the most obvious here. Rivian has an opportunity to prove that their vision of the future is the right one, while giving prospective buyers and current owners a massive win with CarPlay/Android Auto support.
Going this route can deliver the best of both worlds.
Rivian gets the breathing room to build their vision of the future and convince users of how great it is, while also not alienating prospective owners along the way so they can sell more vehicles and scale to profitability.
These two realities can be parallel, as they are not mutually exclusive.
You can catch the full InsideEVs interview here.
As a quick follow-up to the state of the Rivian app on the new iPhone Duo, it looks like early adopters won't have to wait long for proper app support.
Hardware
Yesterday, we got the earnings report from the 3rd quarter of 2026.
As is quickly becoming tradition, I held my live watch party followed by audience q&a at the end for almost an hour.
We learned a few things based on the earnings report.
- Revenue beat by nearly 8%
- R2 became the single best selling model within it's first full quarter
- We still see regulatory credit revenue of $81 million
- Software services are a major growth opportunity with $256 million in revenue, up $102 million compared to the same quarter last year
- Consolidated gross profit is up dramatically ($176 million vs $24 million) for the same quarter last year
- Delivery guidance went up slightly to a range of 67,000-70,000 vehicles
The big takeaway is that Rivian is still losing money, but they are doing a good job at reducing the burn, shipping more vehicles, and growing their high margin software services business considerably.
I've been surprised at the recent uptick in concern over Rivian's long term financial stability given they are arguably in the best position they've been in for years.
If we see continued sales success for R2 that leads to amortized production expenses and improved margins, coupled with the a growing software services business, things could get interesting.
We've seen the headline deals with Volkswagen auto group, as well as Uber, so I think it's very likely we see more deal announcements similar to these as Rivian shows an aptitude for raising capital through partnerships.
One potentially double-edged point that came out during the earnings call was the idea of "continued cost improvements" for R2.
From an investor standpoint, this is good news because it means Rivian is forever evaluating part suppliers and design decisions that could lead to cheaper and easier manufacturing with improved margins.
However, from a customer standpoint this almost exclusively means a lesser product based on past experience.
We did not hear a single official comment about the back seat fan removal during the call, which I do believe was spurred by supplier issues and had the side effect of reducing costs in the long term.
I'd fully expect more small design adjustments like this to happen as R2 continues to go through its production ramp.
We continue to wait on official dates around Gen3 Autonomy and lower trims such as the R2 Premium and R2 Standard.
Direct questions from analysts on the call lead to vague "in the coming months" responses for when these may start to be available.
When I did a video about LiDAR several months ago, I was quite convinced that no customer would take delivery of a Gen3/LiDAR equipped vehicle in 2026, and that seems to be playing out.
Couple that with the wording Rivian used on this document, and it's pretty clear that if you really want Gen3, you're going to need to wait until it's advertised front and center as the vehicle being delivered.
I've had multiple questions about Rivian Care, often phrased as "the Rivian extended warranty".
But here's the thing; Rivian Care really isn't an extended warranty at all.
I break down what Rivian Care really is, as well as when it may or may not make sense to purchase the options in the first place.
Hopefully this helps you make a more informed decision.
Community
First I wanted to thank everyone who showed up for yesterdays live call!
I started doing this on a whim last year and it's been a fun way to routinely connect with the community and answer questions people may have.
I'm already looking forward to the next one.
One really cool thing about the Rivian community so far is just how nerdy and curious so many of us are.
With the unfortunate seat back fan removal, we're seeing what feels like the start of a community driven effort to restore the functionality.
I fully expect this wiring harness to be exhausted and then replaced with one that does not have the pin out. Vehicles delivered in the near future have a chance for a retrofit, but it will likely not be feasible forever.
The fact that Rivian will not sell customers fan components has led us here, but also gives support that this may have come from a supplier shortage in the first place.
We certainly saw something similar during COVID with all kinds of components that led Tesla to pull passenger lumbar in the 3/Y, among other changes.
Worth Checking Out - Road Cam Storage
It's a real shame just how much prices have increased for storage and memory, which has impacted so many different markets.
But don't let those price increases stop you from catching footage through your road cam in case something wild happens while you're out and about.
Thankfully I have some drives from the "before times" when prices were a lot more reasonable, but I also know many of you are taking delivery of your first Rivian and will need something.
While only 256gb of storage, that should be enough for most people and it will save you some decent cash compared to the larger capacity options.
This will also give you the option to offload the motion cam footage should someone end up hitting your car like I had earlier this year.
You can grab the 256gb (or other capacities) here and support the content at no additional cost to you, as it uses an Amazon affiliate link.
Industry News
The first big industry news this week comes from Ford.
With the upcoming Ford Fathom, a $30k electric pickup truck that delivers compelling range and efficiency is also expected to deliver affordable V2H (vehicle to home) power backup.
Unlike the F-150 Lightning and GM vehicles that deliver DC output that then needs more expensive home hardware to convert to AC power, the Fathom should be AC to start with.
This should result in lower cost hardware on your home, less expensive installation, and on-board hardware the delivers multiple days of power.
Rivian has been promising V2H since the orginal R1T was delivered back at the start of 2022, but here we are almost 5 years later and still no word on a viable V2H solution from Rivian.
Similar to Ford, R1S and R1T vehicles would deliver DC output that is more expensive to connect to your home. However, R2 should deliver similar AC power as the Ford Fathom.
As someone who is very interested in a connected home backup solution, I really wish Rivian would deliver on this longstanding promise.
Second, we have more evidence to support my anecdotal feeling that the fast charging situation in America is notably improved.
Tesla still dominates, but the speed of deployment for non-Tesla locations is rapidly improving. Comparing my road trip experience in 2025 to 2026, our need for Tesla Superchargers dropped dramatically.
So if you're like most people and getting into an EV for the first time, your options are pretty great as it stands today. They are also continuing to rapidly improve for a stress-free charging experience.
Latest Deals
It's the last chance for October deals, as most of them require securing your offer by November 2nd with a November 30th delivery deadline.
The majority of the offers are still working on incentivizing the remaining 2026 model inventory, but we do have a new 3.99% offer for 2027 vehicles.
There are still some overall price reductions available:
Check out the price reduction on R1S.
Check out the price reduction on R1T.
Here's what's sticking out for deals this week:
Dual Large (3.99% or $1.5k lease bonus) [Lease vs Buy Example]
2026 R1S Dual-Large (Premium Audio)
2026 R1T Dual-Large (Premium Audio, Utility V2 Tonneau)
Tri Max (1.99% or $1.5k lease bonus) [Lease vs Buy Example]
Quad Max (3.99%) [Lease vs Buy Example]
All R1 referrals also get 3 months of free charging on the Rivian Adventure Network, as well as some shop credits (varies by trim).
I hope enjoyed this week's edition of the Rivian Recap. Let me know what you'd like to see more of in future editions!
Even if you just want to say hi, hit reply – I'd love to get to know you 👋
Stay curious ✌️,
Travis Ketchum
P.S. Thinking about buying a new Rivian R1S or R1T?
Make sure you use a referral code. A friend, a neighbor, or someone who has helped you along the way.
Here's mine: TRAVIS4699411
P.P.S. Here are some tools and resources you may find useful: